Retirement Calculator

The useful question is not what your balance will be. It is whether that balance supports the life you want. This compares the two: what you are on track to have, against what you would need to draw your desired income sustainably.

Your inputs

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The share of the portfolio drawn in the first year of retirement.

Your result

Surplus or shortfall—
Projected balance—
Balance you would need—
Projected balance in today's money—
Income it would support—
Income you want, in future money—
On track—
Years to go—
Formula
Projected balance from current savings and contributions, against required balance = desired income inflated to the retirement year, divided by the withdrawal rate.

Why the target moves

Sixty thousand a year sounds concrete, but if you retire in thirty years, sixty thousand of today's money is a much larger nominal figure by then. The calculator inflates your desired income to the retirement year before working out the balance required to produce it. Skipping that step is the single most common way retirement projections flatter themselves.

The withdrawal rate

Four percent is the conventional starting point, from research suggesting that drawing four percent of the initial balance, adjusted for inflation each year, historically survived a thirty-year retirement in most cases. It is a rule of thumb from historical data, not a law. Longer retirements, weaker starting valuations or a more conservative allocation all argue for a lower rate; flexibility in your spending argues you can tolerate a higher one.

What the shortfall is telling you

A gap is not a verdict. There are four levers, and it is worth seeing which moves your number most: contribute more, work longer, spend less in retirement, or accept more risk for a higher expected return. In most realistic cases, working two or three years longer does more than any plausible increase in return, because it adds contributions and removes withdrawal years at the same time.

What this deliberately leaves out

Social Security or a state pension, any workplace pension with a defined benefit, part-time income, an inheritance, or downsizing a home. Each of those reduces the balance you need, sometimes substantially. Treat the required figure as the amount your own savings must cover, then subtract other reliable income sources from the target.

Frequently asked questions

How much do I need to retire?

A common shorthand is twenty-five times your desired annual spending, which is the inverse of the four percent rule. Subtract any pension or Social Security income first, since those cover part of the need directly.

Is the 4% rule still valid?

It remains a reasonable starting point and is widely debated. Critics point to lower expected returns and longer retirements; defenders note it was derived from historically difficult periods. Many people plan closer to three and a half percent and stay flexible.

What if I want to retire early?

Early retirement is harder on both sides: fewer contributing years and more withdrawing years. A longer horizon also argues for a lower withdrawal rate, which raises the balance needed. Move the retirement age down here and watch the required figure climb.

Should I include my house?

Only if you genuinely intend to sell it and live on the proceeds. Equity in a home you plan to keep living in does not produce retirement income.